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HardeeHo's avatar

Oh yeah, let's retaliate by cutting off arms shipments that the Saudis pay for! Brilliant way to get them to buy from our good buddies Russia who we want to punish. The Sauds are in a perpetual cold war with Iran who happens to wish evil on the little Satan, Israel and the big one, the US. The enemy of my ....

The inane policy choices of Biden's crew early on made the in-progress petro mess. It was already floundering from ESG policies pushed by Blackrock among others restricted investment in fuel ventures. The capital required for fuel production is high, along with the risks. Generally more than even Exxon can handle completely let alone the smaller guys. That ESG push was happening as Trump took office. I suspect it wasn't on his radar in spite of a minor decline in fuels production, we were OK. But exploration, drilling, extracting take time and money. That would have been visible as the pandemic arrived and we stopped the world for a bit.

With a recovering economy and growth despite producing at near 2019 level, it was not enough and the work to prepare for that growth didn't happen. Shortages lead to price hikes. Worse during the pandemic we shuttered wells and smaller producers died. Restarts are near impossible. Adding to that the Biden policy made any investment even more risky and eliminating leases made it worse.

My solace lies in some lovely holding of Exxon which is now more than capable of paying their clockwork dividends. For a bit, they were borrowing money to pay dividends! A lot of retirees like me, kinda need them. Even the forced (by Blackrock) new Exxon ESG company directors have set aside ESG for the moment given the crisis.

We and Germany are learning that green energy hasn't arrived. Amazon can't deliver energy overnight. The transition was happening as it was making some economic success. Imagining government policy could propel it faster than the economics allowed was foolish. I suspect the grand plans for Detroit EVs will result in a lot of wasted capital trying to dig the needed material out of the ground, but not my area. I think there is a viable, sustainable path with hydrogen after we create the needed technology. History says that development takes whatever time it takes and policy pronouncements without a huge investment effort won't get it faster.

With $30T in debt projects like the Manhattan or Moon projects are near impossible. Just wait and see what Congress does when debt service interest explodes to consume outlays.

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