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An interesting take. My sense of the Japanese administrative state was long ago when I lived there. Then (late 60's) the various departments kept to their assigned lanes with minimal inter-departmental friction or jealousy. The Japanese culture is not one of greed nor power but of obligation. They really do expect excellence in execution of tasks. That's what drives the salaryman to devote himself to his work.

Abe was requiring a relook at policy about defense even into obtaining nuclear weapons. If you recall, Trump even mentioned giving Japan such weapons. I suspect that prospect was a bit much for the Japanese even given Korea. But the Chinese are reopening old wounds in a particularly disrespectful way. Few Americans can appreciate the xenophobia among Asian societies. And Chinese aggressive moves might trigger really old battles of 1274 and 1281 that are part of Japanese mythology of kamikaze (divine wind).

Hard to say the motivations of Abe's killer. He did go to great trouble to build a shotgun. Had he tried to steal one from a licensed owner he would have been found, my guess. The shells are somewhat available in Japan and easier to steal. The shooter claims Abe was friendly to the Unification Church, but Abe was supposed to be a Shinto and has been known to be friendly to the Catholic Church. Abe notably got bad marks outside of Japan for visiting a Shinto Shrine honoring "war criminals". We await more investigation.

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HardeeHo: International Man of Mystery.

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I've been making contact periodically with Japan on the Substack platform. The first installment might have been this essay: "Credible Commitments End Ways," https://dvwilliamson.substack.com/p/credible-commitments-end-wars

You might find it interesting. The big puzzle (in my mind) comes from the Naive Economist: Can't parties to (possibly fraught) exchange cut deals and secure mutual gains rather than resort to war? I've focused some energy on the Japanese experience in the first half of the 20th century.

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Kissinger worked on the policy of trade entanglements that would reduce the prospects of war. Much of that policy reflected US control over the seas acting as the world police. Various alignments of nations were formed to reduce the spread of the communist ideology. China has seen through that and has used western greed as a tool to try to rework both the trade entanglements and the national alignments. There most effective weapon has been trade supported by national investment until they could challenge the US dominance both economically and militarily. They are the new Japan seeking to control resources via economic power, they are now the owners of much resource.

It's not clear what Russia's intent might be in terms of trying recreate an empire. Their economy can't support their goals but as ESG has frustrated energy development in the west, perhaps they thought energy might fund their use of force. A weakened Russia most certainly benefits China as Xi smiles at Putin.

BTW I was married to a Japanese lady who was in grade school in the 40's. She noted that after the war she discovered maps never seen in her school days that showed how large the US was compared to the Japanese. She thought that attacking the US was simply stupid. Once the Japanese had quelled the Russians, within Japan there was a belief in the huge superiority of the race over the weak gaijin, westerners. Perhaps that gave them a belief that their superior abilities could gain them the status they deserved. Ruth Benedict's work is worth a look along with the many critiques including a YouTube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IfZYIGltfsE.

Don't know of a similar analysis of the Chinese culture and pointers might be useful.

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I will check it out (the Youtube link). Cheers!

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If you come across a similar study of the Chinese culture that doesn't say it's 1000's of years old, bla bla bla, I'd be interested. My sense of things suggests that in many Asian cultures there is a strong aversion to failure that is not present in most western cultures. I actually enjoyed stories from wealthy friends who described their making and losing money on a scale I never would have risked. OTOH, I once had a Korean girlfriend who enjoyed playing high stakes poker where she actually had to arrange for a banker to fund a wager she made that well exceeded my yearly salary. She was quite wealthy perhaps because the mostly male players dismissed her as a female. So much for risk taking.

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